How the Desk Predicts
A STADIO Desk prediction is an editorial judgment designed to make a match easier to read. The Desk reviews recent matches, head-to-head history, tournament stage, and the game’s own selection structure before choosing a direction and writing down the reason.
The goal is to fix the view before play, score it by the same rule afterward, and keep measuring the quality of that judgment.
Locked before play
A published Desk prediction is finalized before the match begins. The version that readers could see beforehand is always the one that gets scored.
If a pre-match fact such as the lineup or schedule changes, the prediction can be reviewed only before the lock. A revised version is labeled on the match page so it does not look as if there was only ever one judgment.
Evidence first
A prediction combines a team name and percentage with connected form, head-to-head history, tournament stage, and series length. It then uses game-specific viewing angles: drafting and adaptation in LoL, map vetoes and sides in CS2, and maps and agent compositions in VALORANT.
A thin sample keeps the conclusion proportionally cautious, and the write-up separates what can be supported from what remains unknown.
Scored on results
Predictions that name a team are checked against the actual winner and recorded as a hit or miss, with hits and misses from the same period shown together. A matchup where neither side has a meaningful edge and no team is selected is retained separately, without scoring a winner selection.
The accumulated record is available by game on the prediction record page, with the number of scored matches and each prediction alongside its actual result.
The record so far
This is the current record of predictions locked before play and checked against the result. Hits and misses have equal weight here, and every figure updates with the underlying data.
Graded period 2026-07-04–2026-10-13
The 753 scored predictions were checked against results. The 10 predictions awaiting a result and 84 matchups where no team was selected remain separate.
Record by game
| Game | Scored | Hits | Misses |
|---|---|---|---|
| LoL | 343 | 225 | 118 |
| VALORANT | 248 | 150 | 98 |
| CS2 | 162 | 106 | 56 |
Recent form
The 30 most recently settled predictions are compared with everything before them under the same rule.| Period | Scored | Hits | Misses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest 30 | 30 | 18 | 12 |
| Earlier record | 723 | 463 | 260 |
Where the probability landed — and where it did not
One hit and one miss, drawn from the same ledger.| Case | Match | Pre-match call | Result | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit example | LoLBilibili Gaming vs LYON | Bilibili Gaming 92% | Hits | 데스크 콜은 Bilibili Gaming 승리를 92%로 보고 있으며, 양 팀은 첫 대결 예정이라 상대 전적 데이터가 없고 30일 최근 폼은 모두 단판 1승으로 동일해 구체적 근거 차이보다는 무난한 체급 우위 가설을 전제로 한 호출로 보인다. 관전 포인트는 먼저 직전 상대 전적이 없어 이번 첫 매치업이 향후 흐름의 시드가 된다는 점이고, 다음으로 양 팀 모두 최신 경기 승리로 폼이 살아 있어 BLG의 92% 우세 콜과 실제 결과가 어긋날 변수를 LYON이 만들 수 있는지 확인하는 것이다. |
| Largest miss | LoLTeam Secret Whales vs Top Esports | Top Esports 90% | Misses | 데스크 콜은 Top Esports 90%다. 양 팀 모두 최근 30일 동안 0승 1패로 최신 경기에서 패배를 기록한 동일한 흐름을 보이고 있다. 이번 매치업은 직전 상대 전적 데이터가 없어 첫 대결로 성사된다. 관전 포인트는 최근 폼이 비슷한 두 팀이 다전제에서 어떤 흐름을 만들어내는지 확인하는 것이다. |
Sources and limits
Schedules, participants, and final scores are assembled from information published by tournament operators and the match feeds connected to STADIO. Names, time zones, and series records are normalized into one format before they appear on a match page. If an organizer changes an earlier announcement or corrects a result, the record here may also change after that revision has been verified.
Recent form includes only matches that can be connected with confidence, so coverage is not equally deep for every team or competition. The write-up identifies those limits, and a missing map, an unconfirmed roster, or an incomplete historical series is covered only as far as it is confirmed.
What stays private
Detailed weights and probability calculations are not published. The way team evidence and game-specific variables are combined into one judgment is a skill this desk has built up through repeated work.
The parts a reader needs to verify remain public: the selected side, probability, written rationale, actual result, and score. The Desk should be judged by the consistency of those decisions and results.
Automation, AI assistance, and human review
Automation or AI assistance may be used for schedules, results, statistical aggregation, comparison, research organization, and parts of an analysis draft. Player and team aggregates, and pages without a named author, do not carry a claim of page-level human review.
Search publication is limited to the Korean canonical match page with a pre-match Desk analysis and a result-scoring record. Human review is claimed only when an author or reviewer is explicitly identified on that page.
How to read it
A Desk prediction is a viewing reference, not a guaranteed outcome. A match contains more variables than any public dataset, including roster changes, patches, and day-of performance that cannot all be known in advance.
Read the rationale alongside the direction and compare it with your own view. After the match, return to the prediction record to see how the same judgment was scored.
The prediction scorecard shows the fixed view, tied to its reasoning and the final result.